Australia’s Underlying Interest Rates Could Decline To 3.8% in 2023; Will This Be Good News to Traders?

Interest rates have made the headlines this year, especially in the financial markets. Starting at about 0.1 percent in January, they have climbed to over 2 percent over a year—a record. The rates began climbing to steady the inflation rates, which had also risen to new extremes. The rise came against the bank of Australia’s challenging position during COVID that interest rates will stay lower.

Conflict in Eastern Europe and Covid is what causes inflation, which has adversely affected consumers, who borrowed massively to open new businesses and finance their new homes when interest rates were at an all-time low. The interest rate rises in 2022 have been bad news for traders and borrowers. However, the sign of a drop next year signifies a better year for trading.

Rising Interest Rates

Interest rates went up for one sole purpose, which was to curb inflation. The reason for the increased cost of goods and services includes the immediate rise in demand for goods and services after the COVID lockdowns. Increased demand for physical goods that were unavailable at the height of the pandemic also played a role to boost the levels of inflation.

Conflicts in the Eastern part of Europe also played a significant role in pushing up inflation levels. The conflict constrained the movement of oil, which the Eastern part of Europe is a major supplier to a majority of the world economy.

Rising inflation compels central banks across the world to act; the action to raise interest rates comes about because borrowing and monetary action influence the life of every individual in an economy.

Impact of Rising Interest Rates

While governments and respective central banks have many levers to control inflation. Cutting interest rates is one of the most effective means because it influences every individual in an economy.

Before January 2022, interest rates were at an all-time low—the rates stood at 0.1 points. Interest rates when at their lowest stimulate borrowing and other business-related activities in an economy, including trading activities. Over the years, people have taken mortgages and sought more money to finance other leisure activities.

However, consumers found themselves in a tight spot when the rates started rising. The increases meant people could not borrow cheaply, or take new money to finance pastime activities.

Rising interest rates also impact the financial markets, as they dampen investor mood in taking new positions. In the event of rising interest rates, investors dump most of their risky assets and direct them into government-backed bonds that provide more returns in the period. Such sentiments have pushed most crypto and other digital assets to register an underperformance for the first time in many years. 

The crypto slump has shackled some firms dealing in the commodity, while others have gone out of business. The stock market has also taken a significant hit. Large indices in the US have seen up to a 30 percent loss in value since January. The crypto market has shed about 70 percent value in the same period. 

High inflation has also not spared some businesses, which have found themselves unable to meet their liabilities, meaning they stopped operations, pushing them out of the financial markets.

Interest Rates Dropping In 2023

Many experts think that peak inflation has already hit and passed. Many figures point out that inflation rates this year will drop gradually. The dropping numbers are a significant fact in the financial markets. Lower inflation would compel central banks to set lower interest rates, meaning fewer borrowing costs over the same period. Non-essential activities such as investing in the stock market and brokering in trading sites might hit new records this year.

Will the Markets Be Bullish In 2023

The aggressive approaches taken by the central banks to curb inflation might take hold in the economy this year, meaning lower inflation. A period of lower inflation spurs investments in many areas. Commodities like crypto and the stock markets might rebound once more.